Euro Outlook
The euro rose yesterday after the german and france business confidence data showed a surprise improvement.. also mr.trichet stated that e.u. interest rates are at the right level, dismissing doubts about an ecb rate cut soon.. the euro climbed to a high of 1.5855, before retreating on profit-taking to 1.5775 this morning.. we believe that the euro has begun a new wave of uptrend from its last week’s low of 1.5340.. if this new rally extends directly to at least 1.5905, or a bit higher to 1.5950 / 95, then we may witness an exhaustion at a certain level, followed by a broad correction that may drive the euro down to the 1.5000 level and lower.. however, if a major retracement occurs prematurely before the 1.5905 top, to approximately 1.5550 area, then we will expect a new buying-interest to emerge increasingly bullish and implying a very wide extension to the upside, calling for levels of 1.7000 / 1.8000 in the following months.. this is the technical verdict for the time-being; so, wait and see.. today, we expect the correction to extend to 1.5660 / 40 and possibly a revival of an upside momentum there; but the short-term picture is not very clear, as we can begin an important correction here to 1.5550 / 40, which will call for the above very euro-bullish scenario afterwards, only if the central banks allow it..
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