Morning forex report
The USD marked time in o/n trading, with the EUR/USD retreating from the $1.5650 area, yen remaining relatively soft though. GBP remains bubbly, not a huge vote of confidence in UK banks or the BoE etc., but this looks like EUR/GBP traders are balking at pushing to 0.80 just yet, hedgers and range trading fans will be looking for 0.7750 pressure for 0.7700 in the near term, potential back to 0.74 seen after this – if the trend breakout is actually reversing. In the EUR/USD the pressure on $1.56+ opens up $1.59 and higher risk, but still leaning to limited upticks, then down to tackle $1.53 for $1.5140/1.4950 and lower. The CHF is still looking as if it can back up, with the EURX building above 1.57, see if 1.58 can start to be eroded for 1.59 and higher. True, this depends on risk aversion continuing to abate, tough to see when money market rates continue to edge higher despite CB’s pumping money into the system. Again, this is not a money issue, banks don’t want to lend money as they are trying to build up their balance sheets and don’t know who has a black hole in their books (fair enough really…). Back to the UK, and news that the FSA will be beefing up their scrutiny of banks etc. is a classic barn doors and horses exercise, the main problem with NRK was that their business model (borrow expensive, lend even higher) worked until it didn’t, at which stage does a regulator tell a private company ‘hey, your business model has risks….’ and what can they do about it? Hmm… Plenty of data on offer today, see if the IFO surprises on the upside again while the US durable goods figure will be interesting to watch for growth clues. New home sales? Stability would be good, if seen…
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