Euro Outlook
The dollar dropped yesterday after a fall in the u.s. consumer confidence revived the toughness of the housing and credit crisis.. investors remain nervous about the u.s. economy which is probably in a recession.. consequently, the euro climbed and retested a high of 1.5655, before retreating on profit-taking.. technically, the euro’s decline from its all-time high of 1.5905 to 1.5340 last week is considered as enough correction (for us); and we think that the rally seen since then is the resumption of the upmove that should drive the euro to at least a revisit of 1.5905 top, most probably higher, approaching the 1.6000 level.. however, some analysts still expect the euro’s correction from 1.5905 to extend lower to 1.5255, or even lower to 1.5170, before a new rally unfolds.. we believe that we are right and the first signal that would confirm our view in the next hours is the euro surmounting the 1.5690 fibonacci retracement level (61.9% of the last fall) on an hourly closing basis.. otherwise, a distinct fall below 1.5450 will signal a new decline and announce 1.5170, possibly lower 1.5145/1.5100.. for today, we expect the euro’s fall from yesterday’s top to exhaust around 1.5560/25 and a new buying-interest to emerge towards 1.5730 then 1.5770, on its way to 1.5905 in the coming sessions..
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