Euro Outlook

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and the swissie due to the extension of the u.s. credit crisis, and fears of more failures of financial institutions after stearns… the fed took new emergency measures on sunday (highlighting the emergency of the situation) by cutting its discount rate; but central banks’ intervention looks to be the last solution to calm down the market for the moment… very negative sentiment on the u.s. dollar prevails and the euro’s rally reached a high of 1.5904 this morning… technically, the upmove can extend more and more for the above reasons, and the dollar may continue to plunge… next resistance levels for the euro, in uncharted area, are 1.5940/75 and 1.6035… participants will be awaiting to detect the slightest signal/rumour of coordinated central banks intervention to get rid of their excessive euros for profit-taking.. for the short-term, an intraday fall below 1.5705 will imply a revisit of 1.5670/50, maybe lower… our long-term objective was raised to 1.6000/1.6130 for the coming weeks/months; but we suggest to place a tight stop-loss on all euro-longs below 1.5240 if this is affordable to you.. take care… beware central banks verbal interventions that may trigger a very quick /deep consolidation.

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