Morning forex report
The USD remained soft o/n, following the sell off after the soft jobless claims (373K) and Pres. Bush saying that he favors a strong USD, as did Tsy Sec. Paulson. The mkt is voting with their feet though, and with eyes on a softening economy and rate cuts ahead, traders are going with the flow. The yen punched through 105, and while 101 and lower are clearly at risk on a bear flag (80?) right now favoring bottom fishing for a pop back to 108+. Why? Falling line support near 104 may avoid being tested, the Japanese fundies are still soft, and the USD selling seems a bit too one way. In the EUR/USD the risk is to 1.55/1.56 still and then 1.60, but watch activity today for pullbacks to 1.5050/40. While the break is for real, chances are that payrolls won’t be as bad as the trading off jobless claims implies, and Trichet is not stupid, look for some attempts at jawboning the USD up a smidgen next week, he doesn’t want to see one way FX trading and 1.50 being lost forever…
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