Exotic currencies report
One of the better stories in the relatively high yield world has been the MXN as this currency has pushed from 10.80 towards 10.65 over the last few days, pretty much on target for 10.60 probes. The latter marks key support for the USD which if lost would leave 10.40 to attract and leave a very big, multiyear top in place. While this is possibe, and indeed has been favored for a long time, chances are that the current spate of strength may not persist and in fact a pullback to 10.80/85 should be played for. If the US economy is set to tumble further, then Mexico, like Canada, will be hit to some extent. If the bet in the market is that Mexico has decoupled from the US, this seems unlikely. The proof is in the pudding though, watch the turn below 10.70 to see if this holds, and use pushes through this area as warning signals for 10.80 in quick order. Pressure below 10.63/60 would do a lot to confirm the ‘decoupling’ trade though, so interesting times ahead? Favoring 10.80/85 to buy again on but….
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