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Evening forex report

The GBP stormed back in London morning trading as retail sales figure caught shorts on the hop. The 0.8% mom rise was better than the 0.3% figure that had been expected, which should give the BoE some comfort as house prices seem to be stabilizing too = wait and see on rate cuts? Data later today is on the thin side, Philly Fed worth watching to see if growth picks up etc. On the charts the turn in the GBP is compelling enough to prompt chasing this one again, with a turn in the EURX below 0.75 favored to leave 0.7440/7400 pressed over the coming sessions, then to 0.7280 and lower. Cable should be able to work through $1.96 towards $1.98, favoring fading there if reached. The USD is holding up vs. the Yen and CHF though, and a push in the USD/YEN towards 109 still seems on near term, then up and running to 112/114. The CHF is eyeing the 1.1030 zone, favoring a break to 1.13+ but this may take some time. The EUR/CHF is punching through key res. at the 1.6220 zone, still on for 1.64 and then 1.67+ here so… EUR/USD upticks continue to find sellers but the trend risk is up. Still – with the EU lowering their growth forecasts (but raising inflation risk…) then chances are that the EUR will be short of good news for a while. Favoring breakdowns below $1.47 to leave $1.46 open, then lower, but capping at 1.4740+ is still the key near term.

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