Morning forex report
The focus is well and truly on the Fed today, with coin tosses on whether it will be a 25 bp or 50 bp rate cut. Watch the GDP data ahead of this, a negative number for Q4 would make the market (and the Fed who probably have the number already, no?) think that recession risk (2 quarters of negative growth) has gone up a notch, 50bp here we go. An ok positive number would shift this view, interesting session ahead? On the charts the uptick in the EUR/USD is putting the topping play in some trouble, not dashed aside yet but… Still, if upticks fail to work through $1.48 on a sustained basis and remain shy of $1.50 then the case for a pullback to $1.43 will remain alive, key for any real breakdown/top. True, this could be a bull flag forming, and if the 1.50 zone is cleared quick targets will be near $1.57, $1.60 open just above this. Fun and games time? Hmm… Still leaning to limited USD downside from here on the view that the slowdown in the economy won’t be as bad as many fear, but the chart view is flat at best. The USD/YEN continues to mark time below 108, but for choice dips towards 106.70/40 area should find USD buyers ahead of 106/105.70. Still like upticks through 108 in time, with 112/114 in the sights above this. Cable is up again, still thinking that $2.01 may be touched here before Cable is a big sell, should see EUR/GBP tumble below 0.74 if GBP does catch a bid, still like 0.7280/40 in time…
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