Evening forex report
Stocks are up, the carry trade is back… well… Choppy trading so far in the London morning session with the EUR/USD ticking a touch higher, while the CAD is on a tear again. The latter is a puzzle, but if one takes the ‘better USD’ approach then the CAD will benefit if the US recession is shallow or non-existent, and if the US economy weakens further, the CAD yield offers a pickup in any event… hmmm… Chances are that the super-CAD is being stop loss driven just now, not the start of another run at 0.90. Watch for bounces today, if 1.00 is regained then a case for 1.0030 and then 1.0070/1.0130 should be seen. Data today will focus on durable goods in the US, whippy as you like at the best of time so roll the dice. Looking ahead and its all about the Fed, 25bp or 50bp is the bet, see if the text offers any silver lining or if its all dark clouds for the Fed. Cable has been threatening to break higher all morning, favoring a push through 1.99 to $2.01 here, sell there if seen with risk layered up to $2.04 for $1.80? Seemed like a good idea at $1.93+ a few sessions ago, see if $2.01 is approached and if still seems like a good idea then?
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