Morning forex report
The yen firmed on Tuesday (Japan back from hols) as stocks fell away, and while the risk is that the yen firms further through Y107.20/00 to 105 and lower for the USD, favoring bottom fishing ahead of the 107 area once again. This should leave 109 to be regained, with 112+ still marking near term targets. The USD is under a big cloud though, with the USD/CHF hammering away on the 1.09 zone which could give way on a sustained basis for 1.05 and lower. Again, favoring bottom fishing here too on the view that the US consumer may not roll over just yet, use the 1.1030 area as the recovery play res. to regain. In the EUR/USD the push above $1.49 on Monday leaves $1.4970/1.50 at risk for $1.60 further out. The trend is up and the risk is on a break higher, but for choice see if the $1.4820/00 zone can come under pressure, leaving 1.47 and lower to attract if seen. Right now though, the focus is on the USD support levels, and whether or not retail sales can hold up today. Trade ideas? Still like picking on the CAD, the AUD and NZD remain bid vs. this currency with 0.80 cleared in the NZD/CAD, 0.84 next? The CHF continues to baffle with the EUR/CHF pushing through 1.6230 support, risk is that 1.62/1.6170 gives way for 1.6080 and lower. While possible, the flight to quality seems a bit sharp here, use 1.6250 and then 1.63+ as reversal levels… Cable remains flat, EUR/GBP up but 0.76 is still thought to be too sticky to clear just yet…
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