Euro Outlook
The euro seems to be all dynamic and energetic heading to 1.4500/50 in the next sessions/week… participants are expecting the fed to trim u.s. interest rates on wednesday’s fomc meeting, and are betting on a further cut in december… technically, a possible slight corrective pullback may occur in the next 48 hours, probably after 1.4440/70 resistance, that may drive the euro down a bit to around 1.4380/55, possibly lower but maximum to 1.4330/15 (not favoured) before a new rally to 1.4485/1.4515 where we would expect a bigger consolidation to take place… the medium-term trend is euro-bullish and the target is 1.4655/65 in a 2-3 weeks time-zone; and only an hourly close below 1.4270 (anytime) can delay this upmove… the long-term objective was reviewed to the upside, with a new target at 1.4845/1.4950 that will looked at more confidently once the 1.4665 hurdle is out of way…. this trend will remain valid and ongoing unless a daily close below 1.4000 is registered anytime.
The EURUSD is in consolidation ahead key economic events.
The EURUSD trading is within the range of 1.4160/1.4195. Break below 1.4160 will provoke movement to 1.4120/25. The market is into consolidation ahead the important events for the U.S. economy expecting this morning. If the data for the U.S. economy is worse than the forecasting the EURUSD is on the way to break 1.4195 and to provoke 1.4240 and then 1.4280. The first key events today are Retail Sales and Producer Price Index. The chances for positive data are higher for the moment according to World-Signals.com.
Market Update
Today’s technical picture is as follows: the euro has probably ended its corrective downleg (from the top of 1.4280) at friday’s 1.4030, and is now gathering momentum for its new upmove initially to 1.4315/30 in the next sessions… this scenario will need a confirmation with a daily close above 1.4230… the second scenario (which looks more accurate today) is that the euro’s fall to 1.4030 was the first corrective downleg, needs to correct it up to 1.4180/1.4225 then a new downleg will unfold ideally to 1.3930, possibly (not favoured) to as low as 1.3870… only at these levels, the euro will turn upwards again targetting 1.4315/35, most probably higher 1.4415/65 possibly 1.4505/45 afterwards… for the next 48 hours, we expect a slight fall to 1.4085/60 then a rise to 1.4185/1.4225 in the following hours, an area where we expect a new selling pressure to emerge and a new fall to develop to 1.4030 then 1.3935 maximum 1.3870… only a rally above 1.4235 (hourly close) anytime, will jeopardize the downmove… the long-term trend will remain bullish unless a daily close below 1.3765 is registered
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