Market Update
The softer USD is being blamed for much of the recent spike higher in commodity prices, and while this makes sense on a basic level (European’s can buy more gasoline as it is cheaper in EUR’s), chances are that the USD effect on non-precious metal commodities is being greatly overestimated by commodity bulls. Still, for the Fed this is another worrying inflation risk, see if the speakers today address this. Interesting to note that recent ECB comments have referred to the G7 texts on them not wanting excessive FX movements and to the US stance on wanting a strong currency. Broad hints to Treasury that they would need to intervene first to stop a falling USD becoming a one way bet? ? Hmmm… On the charts the new EUR/USD highs keeps the bias on 1.43/1.4380 probes, but above 1.40 the EUR/USD is really into thin air. Looking for $2.03 to draw out Cable sellers still, while the AUD, NZD and CAD are having a heck of a run here, key highs at risk for further gains so… USD/YEN at 115 should find buyers, risk below 114.80 today, aiming for 116 and then 117.20 still…
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