Euro Outlook
Stock-markets have recovered, and the turmoil in the subprime mortgage market also showed an apparent semblance of calm…. with worries of risk aversion fading, the rebuilding of carry-trades were revived favouring high-yielding currencies…. the euro gained on the yen, and the dollar remained under pressure once the markets recovered its stability… the euro rose to as high as 1.3685 this morning as participants are still expecting the ecb to hike rates next week… technically the rally above 1.3660 (61.9 pct fibonacci retracement level) is to be considered as a new impulsive wave, and thus it can still extend to 1.3710/25, and possibly to next resistances at 1.3825/40… for the session, expect a slight correction and then the uptrend to resume to 1.3710/25… mr. trichet is expected to deliver a speech today and his remarks about interest rates awaited… the medium-term trend has turned to positive unless an hourly close below 1.3530 confirms a reversal… the long-term trend remains to the upside and will be reversed to euro-bearish only if a daily close below 1.3340 is registered.
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