Euro Outlook
Finally, the euro was able to unfold a correction, after tempting several times, but without success, to overcome the resistance trendline (joining the tops for the last months) that lies at 1.3865… technically, we think that the euro is in an intermediate corrective phase that has an ideal objective of 1.3670/60 (38.2 pct fibonacci retracement), possibly 1.3640, maximum 1.3615 (not favoured), before a new rally occurs targeting 1.3910/50 and 1.3990/1.4000, then possibly higher… the u.s. data releases today and tomorrow will help finetuning the market’s present sentiment towards the dollar, worsening or tempering a bit the generally negative view on the greenback… the euro’s short-term trend will turn to positive on a sustained intraday break above 1.3730 calling for a revisit of 1.3785/1.3820 area; but the medium-term trend will remain euro-bearish unless an hourly close above 1.3795 occurs, and that will imply a retest of 1.3855/65… for the longer-term the euro will stay in a euro-bullish mood unless a daily close below 1.3525 is registered.
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